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Apparently it's not just me that's sceptical about the value of security crystal ball-gazing. Tim Wilson of Dark Reading takes us (the security industry) to task for being "subjective" and inconsistent in our predictions for the coming year.
Strangely, although he does quote an ESET blog (an observation of Randy's) in his selection of predictions he does consider insightful, he doesn't quote this one: http://www.eset.com/threat-center/blog/2009/12/30/top-ten-trite-security-predictions ;-)
But let's be serious about this for a moment. The media, if Dark Reading will forgive me including them under that label, are in a competitive business and want/need eye-catching news to make them stand out. (I not only understand that pressure, but as a blogger here and elsewhere, I'm often exposed to it.).
As a researcher, my natural inclination when asked to play the oracle is to say "Expect the unexpected (always), but here are a few things that I think are likely to happen." Which is the way I see our blog at http://www.eset.com/threat-center/blog/2009/12/14/que-sera-sera-%e2%80%93-a-buffet-of-predications-for-2010, the one that Tim did quote. The fact is, though, that safe prediction isn't eye-catching. The media would rather we come up with something really off-the-wall, and if we look really silly when it doesn't happen, that's a good story too. After all, being disliked is part of the security industry's job description. In some cases, we don't even like each other (http://www.virusbtn.com/virusbulletin/archive/2006/11/vb200611-OK).
In the real world, though, this is how it is:
David ("I may be old, but my name isn't Moore") Harley BA CISSP FBCS CITP
Director of Malware Intelligence
ESET Threatblog (TinyURL with preview enabled): http://preview.tinyurl.com/esetblog
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Author David Harley, ESET